Traitwell's Future of Genomics Series: Sports, Targeted Drug Discovery, Public and Private Policy, Weaponised DNA, and DNA is Forever

We're continuing our discussion about the future of genomics.

We’re continuing our analysis of the future of genomics. For those who are curious, please visit Traitwell.com. Be sure to check out our free apps.

British nobility horse racing at Apsley House, London c. 1850s

The ‘sports’ we are concerned with in this section are those involving competitive animals, such as horse-racing, dog-racing and others on which bets are placed. Similar considerations will apply to other competitions of the ‘best in show’ kind. These are large industries internationally. Genetic prediction of sporting traits has already been covered above. As with livestock, polygenic scores can and will be used to accelerate selection on desirable traits by breeders. But we are concerned more here with detection of outright cheating by breeders.

A curious side-effect of cloning is to post a threat to the integrity of these competitions. It is relatively easy to clone a champion horse like ‘Secretariat’ and proceed to win competition after competition with the freakishly good genes obtained. Assuming, that is, that one is not racing other clones of freakishly good racers. If this is allowed, races will degenerate into ‘night of the clones’ which is boring, against the spirit of the sport, and will be detested. Clones are already banned in competitive horse-racing (though not breeding from ‘pure’ lines, which is not entirely consistent).

Detection of clones and positive proof of non-cloned descent is therefore important and a service that will be offered commercially. Inspection by appearance is not good enough and contestable. Extending this to as many applications as possible—shows of prize animals of all kinds are held internationally—will make it commercially viable. Closely allied to this is genetic detection of purity of breed.

The tell-tale clues given by appearance largely preclude devious cloning of human sporting champions for now, though edge cases may be hard to detect. However partial cloning of the kind alluded to above might emerge. Suppose one clones the performance part of an athlete, in its entirety, and not the facial appearance, which may be presumed to be independent of athletic ability. State-sponsored cheating using performance-enhancing drugs has always been present. It may extend in the future to partial-cloning, and may have to be addressed.

Targeted Drug Discovery

The Apothecary or The Chemist by Gabriël Metsu (c. 1651–67)

Establishing associations between genes and traits is useful for developing therapies. We have already discussed gene-editing therapy, but a more common application by far follows from understanding of the functions performed by the genes in question. Genes have downstream physiological effects, which may be intercepted at multiple stages.

Even if a gene (or set of genes) is taken as given, interception by drugs of intermediate biochemical products can repair harmful effects, or enhance beneficial effects. There is intense interest in the use of genetic association to develop new pharmaceuticals. Discovery of provably effective drugs is very difficult, and most large companies rely on cash-cow drugs, which appear occasionally, often it seems by pure happenstance, among the myriad in their portfolio. This field is certain to expand dramatically in the future, as genetic information usefully narrows the search for targets and accelerates the process.

Public and Private Policy

Since genes have such for reaching consequences, their distribution within an administrative area—a country, state, province or principality—or over the extent of a multinational corporation, is of interest. Typically these spatial distributions are distinctly uneven. Consider, as just one example, cognitive ability, which is known to be concentrated in urban areas of the UK, particularly in the south, and depleted in former coal-mining areas. This is reflected in polygenic scores for intelligence, which are lower in the depressed midlands, and higher in metropolitan London. Generations of differential migration have contributed to this disparity: migrants are typically of higher ability than those they leave behind (in fact, migrants into the midlands also have higher ability than those they join there, but there are and have been far more leaving than arriving.) Similar patterns exist all over the world.

Facts like these do not by themselves dictate policy responses. More is needed. But they do establish constraints and ground truths for those policies. One may react to the depressed cognitive state of the midlands by investing heavily there, perhaps placing government offices deliberately in the area, to achieve an equalization goal, or one may choose not to do, on the basis that the money is better used elsewhere. Either way, an informed policy takes into account the known facts, once ends are established. There is therefore a pressing public interest in knowledge of the spatial distribution of genetically-grounded traits.

Many other examples—say those involving health (mental and physical) traits, which have uneven genetic distributions underlying them, and the prevalence of inbreeding—may be given. Investments in health measures may benefit from sensible incorporation of that information: some areas may need more cancer hospitals or clinics than others as a result, and more or less investment in other resources.

Large corporations face similar decisions where they have substantial spatial distribution, as multi-nationals must. Incorporating genetic information into the investment decisions–say in training, or in situation of R&D facilities—will be useful.

Here aggregation over instances takes lace, due to the large number of individuals within the groupings concerned, strengthening the effectiveness of the genetic predictors used. It is a filtering operation. In the near future public-private partnerships to utilize genetic data for these purposes should expand. Governments and large corporations will acquire the skills they need, which are not common, through such partnerships.

Weaponised DNA

Heinlein, Navy man, imagined the first race specific bioweapon.

There has been widespread speculation in the past about the weaponization of DNA, specifically the use of viruses to reprogram populations genetically in nefarious ways. This is no longer infeasible. It is not hard to think of damaging changes which may be introduced into a population and spread contagiously (spreading by natural reproduction is too slow for most military time-frames). Suppose aggression, motivation or intelligence are dramatically impaired through alteration of their genetic basis. Outright death and damage to reproductive traits (e.g. by altering sex ratios) are again too dramatic, inviting drastic retaliation, or too slow for effective use. Damage that is hard to detect and is more insidious than dramatic minimizes the risk of retaliation, but may still be very effective.

The trouble with such ideas is that it is very hard to prevent viruses from infecting one’s own population, and the more contagious they are, the harder this is. It is analogous to the drawbacks of gas warfare: the wind may change.

Such weapons would have to be targeted to specific populations to be effective. This may already be possible, though public data is (necessarily) scarce to non-existent about what has actually been accomplished in laboratories to date. Alternatively, the aggressor population may be inoculated in advance, say under the cover of regular inoculation campaigns for MMR, polio and the like. When the virus is released, it may be too late to do anything effective about the aggression.

What can be done? At the very least a mechanism for monitoring genetic changes in populations over time is likely, based on a stratified sampling scheme. Traits may be tracked through this repository, to see if they are being systematically altered. There are pervasive benefits to national security from such monitoring, as it will detect other changes which may not be desirable.

DNA is Forever

They say that diamonds are forever. But diamonds are inert. They only glint at you. DNA is forever, in a much more interesting way. It preserves memories and a wealth of other information that future generations can enjoy and explore.

The frontiers of genetic knowledge are being pushed forward continually. The human genome was sequenced–well, mostly sequenced—in the year 2000. But that only told us where the addresses are in the genome, for a representative person. Since then we have learned much more. The genetic secrets of personality, cognitive ability, susceptibility to certain diseases, mental health, longevity, strength, height and many other traits are being disentangled. We get further with this analysis by the day. It tells a fascinating story.

Summary

Commercial applications of genomics are poised to expand dramatically in the near future. Continually improving sequencing will finally permit read-once/mine-forever use of DNA at an affordable price. The ubiquitous heritability of physical, health and behavioural traits promises a broad range of applications, provided that modest predictors are strengthened through aggregation, either over many traits or over many individuals or instances. Agile players in this market will thrive.