Tech Which Works, Tech Which Definitely Doesn't...
Tech Which Works, Tech Which Definitely Doesn't...
WTF I love high interest rates now?!
“The first thing you need to know about Silicon Valley is that everyone who comes here is from somewhere else.” — Peter Thiel to yours truly March 2018.
What even is technology? Everyone has an opinion and everyone uses it but what is it?
Let’s start by breaking down the words. Its etymology comes from the Greek Τεχνολογία, from τέχνη 'art, craft' and -λογία, “study, knowledge.”
In the modern age Americans want that “new new thing” so memorably encapsulated in Michael Lewis’s portrayal of Jim Clark, the cofounder of Netscape. Clark is a character in every sense of that word — and a construct. His name means Supplanter Scholars. (Even to this day if you see the name “Clark” the Clarks tend to be smart as it’s a variant of "clerk” meaning that they learned how to read earlier than most.) Clark delivered by unlocking one of the key doorways of the Internet — the browser.
“The guy who finds the new new thing and makes it happen wins,” Lewis writes of Clark’s philosophy way back in 1999.
The Texan Clark was extremely well situated. It was he, not his midwestern lackey Andreessen, who won. Yes, it was Andreessen was along for the Clark’s ride. There I said it. And he proved it. Clark's initial investment in Netscape was $4 million in 1994. He exited with $1.2 billion when Netscape was acquired by AOL in 1999.
But what was he winning? The whole American economy. Lewis writes:
When [Clark] cooked up his plans, it never occurred to him that he was an outsider with no experience in the industry he planned to invade. He felt that pretty much the entire American economy was up for grabs, thanks to the Internet.
"The entire economy was up for grabs” but who would grab it? And to what end?
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I have my own definition of technology: “Technology is the practical application of an insight, usually scientific, to the creation of sustained value in the service of others. Commercialization is about making those miracles commonplace. Technological commercialization is where the aristocratic mind meets the democratic market.”
Lots of different people need different insights. You might consider technology the market for insights, given at scale—cheaply. Knowhow is ultimately how we make life better and increase living standards.
This emphasis on the practical is very important too. This is why you find so few real breakthroughs from people spending other people’s money.
It’s the idea made flesh that matters most of all. The best ideas make the world better— hence the “sustained value.”
The Silicon Valley lie is that execution is what matters most — “ideas are cheap” — but this has never been true. (And it isn’t even true based upon the John Doerr quote. Doerr states that “Ideas are easy. Execution is everything. It takes a team to win.”)
The best businesses I have seen were always self-evidently going to work. Like our Declaration of Independence, they arrive almost axiomatic — and then have to be defended by force. Good ideas require relatively little imagination to see how they might scale and who the customer might be. The best ideas were so obvious but only in retrospect. The ideas attracted the team and the team did the executing. Ideas are not easy. It’s not easy to come up with a great idea. If it’s so easy, go ahead. Try it! Come up with a good idea! I’ll wait… and back you if it’s good. I’ll join your team. We will leave aside that it’s highly self-serving for venture capitalists to say that ideas are easy because they want to see a lot of ideas so that they can justify what they do all day.
Execution on a bad idea is not going to make it happen anymore than we’re going to make fetch happen. It’s not going to happen!
The Power Law effects take off only when the idea works. I repeat the Power Law takes effect only when the idea really works. I repeat…
Of course it gets really exciting when the State decides that the Idea has to belong to the State but by then the Idea Man is off to another frontier. He lives on the frontier betwixt the real and the possible. The Idea Man is the ultimate form of an American.
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Any tech which is not practical is not technology; it’s an op. Whose op is an important, in the same vein as “Who, whom?” of Lenin’s formulation.
There are a lot of companies which lie about being technology companies. They are frauds. There are lot of venture capitalists who lie about being venture capitalists. They are spies.
America, being a nation of con men who first of all fool themselves, occasionally needs a flood to separate who is Noah and who is selling snake oil. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Elizabeth Holmes’s ancestors were also involved in a medical fraud. Do you?
High interest rates are one of those things you’re not supposed to like but they do separate the real from the fake.
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American technological knowhow is synonymous with technological power. America refuses to be bested. We don’t tolerate losing our supremacy or our technological mastery.
You don’t have to take my word for it. You can read about it in Wang Huning’s 1991 book, America Against America. Wang is now the fifth most powerful person in China. He has served three different premiers. He calls the shots and he knows us all too well.
Think of Wang as Evil Tocqueville but whereas Tocqueville understood the mores regulate America, Wang sees technology as being the glue which holds our American society together. It’s easy to see that he may well have been right.
As you read this selection from 1991, I want you also asking, “If technology can hold us all together, can it also tear us apart? And might that be precisely what social media is designed to do?”
Anywhere here is Wang:
"Another important reason is the rapid advancement of technology after World War II. I think this has also contributed to the regulation of society. The development of high technology, especially the results of bringing high technology into the homes of ordinary people, so that people must comply with the necessary rules, because without rules, not only can one not enjoy high technology, but it also may be dangerous. Such as cars becoming faster and faster, without strict rules this will be life threatening; as highways are evermore developed, those who do not abide by the rules may not be able to travel; television, VCR, video cameras, washing machines, rice cookers, microwave ovens, audio equipment, vacuum cleaners, weeders, egg beaters, slicers, envelope openers, can openers, massagers, electric toothbrushes, shavers, video games, etc., are required to know than the natural society Simple tools require a much more complex set of rules. In technology, modern devices such as computers, laser typewriters, faxes, and photocopiers refuse to work if their users do not obey the rules. In public places, automatic telephones, newspaper machines, vending machines, automatic cameras, automatic money changers, automatic stamp machines, automatic money deposit and withdrawal machines, all require compliance with the rules. And so on and so forth, under many different names. If the rules are not followed, the machines refuse to work. In the operation of society, checks, credit cards, loans, stocks, etc., there are also detailed rules. Americans grow up in such an environment, in a kind of "social coercion" to follow the rules. To enter this society, you have to follow the rules. This is not only a way of life, but has also become a culture. People get into the habit of following the rules. There is an interesting comparison. Americans cooked food, strictly according to the recipe, strict measurement of various condiments, with a variety of measuring tools, a minute do not want to differ. Chinese people cooking, rarely look at the recipe, grab a handful is. The progress of science and technology in American society, the development of more and more specialized supplies, they require each person who wants to use them must comply with the rules. Naturally, compliance with rules may or may not be beneficial for social development, depending on the historical conditions. However, if one is in a society where there are disputes and groups living together, one always needs mechanisms to reconcile conflicts. The coordination of commonly set regulations may be imperfect, but it is the one most likely to be followed. The effectiveness of regulatory harmonization will be greatly expanded if it is combined with the rationalization principles of technology. Ordinary people do not directly accept high technological logics; they become a subtle force only after they have penetrated into the life of society."
Does the technology work? It only works by following the rules. The tech works only by following the rules. Technology then is an instrument of state power. Control the tech and you can make your own rules. That’s the Elon way, n’est-ce-pas? Isn’t he — not the Pentagon — who decides who has internet or not in Ukraine? He is the decider, or if you prefer, “Chief Twit.” Who is he twitting? America, of course.
(Wang continues:
“While Americans perceive that they face intricate social and cultural problems, they think of these as scientific and technological issues to be solved separately. This gets them nowhere; their problems are inextricably interlinked and have the same root cause; a radical, nihilistic individualism at the heart of modern American liberalism….
The real cell of society in the United States is the individual. The cell foundational as per Aristotle, the family, has disintegrated. Everything has a dual nature, the glamour of commodification abounds; human flesh, sex, knowledge, politics, power, and the law are targets of commodification. The system has created loneliness as its innermost product, along with spectacular inequality. Nihilism has become the American way, a fatal shock to cultural development and the American spirit.”
What could be more nihilistic than Twitter, which once invited comparisons to Seinfeld? What could be more of a time suck? What could promote more division than individualism? And what could be more American?
Alas Elon’s not alone. He has company — and co-investors and co-conspirators. Rather than follow the rules, increasingly a number of startups have tried to warp the rules in their favor by lobbying or installing their own people in key positions within government. This is what Joe Lonsdale, backed as he is by the Chinese through the UAE, means when he says he’s working on “policy” with the Republican Party. We see this most notably with Andreessen Horowitz promoting crypto scams. We saw this first with Jim O’Neill — connected to the Russians through Aubrey de Grey’s SENS — and Indian-Chinese asset Balaji Srinivasan.
Naturally the Chinese have tried to warp our system by distorting our commanding heights. We control space so they “invest” in satellite companies like Capella (controlled by an Iranian-born founder). The Chinese increasingly control genetics and health so they or their agents “invest” in Theranos (fake blood tests), Curative (fake COVID tests) and Ubiome (fake gut tests), to name a few. If you were counting on those companies to help you or your family, you screwed up.
There are a lot of fake start-ups which do real harm. It is precisely the duty of the AUKUS alliance to turn these useful companies—and kill those which are “intellectual cul-de-sacs”/useless/cannot be pressed into the service of the State.
Now, about those fake companies… Is Tesla one of them? That’s increasingly for a jury to consider. Here’s Reuters.
A manslaughter trial set to begin in Los Angeles for a fatal crash caused by a Tesla (TSLA.O) operating on Autopilot presents a first-of-its kind test for the legal responsibility of a human driver in a car that was partly driving itself, legal experts say.
The trial, set to begin Nov. 15, comes as civil cases head to trial next year over accidents involving Tesla’s Autopilot and adds to scrutiny of a system that Tesla co-founder Elon Musk has touted as a step to fully autonomous driving.
One of the key objectives of AUKUS intelligence has been to trap Musk in Twitter and Zuckerberg in the metaverse. Social media isn’t a business but a battlefield, and for Musk and Zuckerberg it may well be a prison. Given how autistic they both are I don’t think either really noticed. We choose our prisons.
The rest of us noticed the high interest rates — rates which are making it clear who is a real entrepreneur and who is not. High interest rates are one of those things you’re not supposed to like but they do separate the real from the fake.
Duck Phillips from Mad Men had it right all along. “When the economy is good, people buy things, and when it’s bad, they don’t. There’s no reason for us to be tied to creative’s fantasies of persuasion.”
What do you think Joe Biden thought when he was riding on the railroads?