We’ve joked that neither Ukraine nor Russia will win the Russo-Ukraine War. It’ll be Türkiye we say rather confidently.
Today’s news — a Turkish-made fifth generation fighter plane’s maiden voyage and a 10-year maritime security pact with Somalia — is making me appreciate just how correct I was in predicting a Turkish moment and future.
Türkiye has shown itself to understand all too well that the future rests in aeronautical excellence and technical mastery. The Bayraktar drones and now the KAAN fighter jet make it all too clear. To be sure I very much doubt the wisdom of a fifth generation fighter jet but I do recognize that every major civilization needs one as a calling card.
Just look at those potential flight paths for Turkish fighter jets.
Alper Gezeravci — Türkiye’s first astronaut — quoted Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in his first words. "The future is in the skies," Gezeravci said. “As Türkiye, we are experiencing the joy of taking a step towards a first in our history. We are eager to contribute to the science and research conducted here.”
The future may be in the skies but Turkiye’s destiny is found in controlling the maritime areas around its reemerging empire. “Somalia’s current defense minister posed in front of a painting in 2021 which depicts Ottoman armada protecting the Muslims living the Gulf of Aden from the colonial Portuguese in the 16th century,” notes Turkish analyst Ragip Soylu. “Same minister signed the Somali - Turkish naval defense deal earlier this month in Ankara, which mandates Turkey to protect the Somali territorial waters.”
Everything old is new again, apparently.
Türkiye has a new ambassador — Sedat Onal — in Washington. He was formerly the UN ambassador and comes highly recommended. In Ankara Ambassador Flake looks ready to depart after a compelling op-ed in Deseret News.
The Turkish writer Ragip Soylu notes the ever closer ties between the United States and the Turkish Republic in his newsletter, especially on military affairs.
Soylu writes:
US Ambassador Jeff Flake revealed that the US was establishing 155mm artillery shell production lines in Texas with the help of a Turkish defence company.
“In Texas, the Department of Defense is building three munitions lines purchased from a Turkish defense firm,” he said. “By next year, an estimated 30% of all 155 mm rounds made in America will come from these Texas factories, thanks to the U.S.-Türkiye defense partnership. “
I suspect you’ll start to see a lot of Turks popping up in unexpected places in America.
Meanwhile Ankara and Baku are planning a joint university. Look close and you can imagine a world in which the Turkic states are united.
In the Black Sea Turkish control seems a fait accompli. Nothing gets in — or out — of the Black Sea without Turkish permission. And they know it.
In the Red Sea Türkiye is taking advantage of Egypt’s dire straights to make a play for the Suez and isolate Netanyahu’s government. So, too, is sometime Turkish ally, UAE, which bought much of the hitherto Russian-owned bits of Egypt.
A Turkish friend of mine has done quite a lot of deals with the UAE and they seem keen to invest mightly in Turkish infrastructure projects in exchange for food and military protection.
You can imagine a world in which Türkiye provides the muscle whilst Qatar, Saudi, and UAE provide the funding.
Were I playing the game as Türkiye I’d do the following things:
I’d join in U.S. efforts to genetically sequence and photograph everyone in Africa. A world where everyone has an e-devlet is a useful one indeed. Have your allies in UAE, KSA, or Qatar buy Illumina stock — work with me on Traitwell! — and let’s do just that.
I’d build housing all throughout Africa using Turkish construction and local talent. There’s a long history of Türkiye working with Africans in a spirit of justice.
I’d invest in countering the Israel lobby in the United States—especially when it comes to Big Food — and focus closely on building technical relationships with America’s oldest families.
As Denmark protects America by slimming down our waistlines through the anti-fat pills, Türkiye, with its rich agriculture, might make it so that those drug interventions are altogether unnecessary.
Let’s not forget that NATO protected the peace in the 20th century. With careful planning and cooperation it’ll last well into the 22nd.